Matt Thomas, Fellow
Matt Thomas
Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts ...

Two years of huge emergency after huge emergency - from the Covid-19 pandemic’s various variants to evacuations from Afghanistan and a series of storms battering the UK - our people are tired, yet the need for humanitarian aid continues to grow. And then the Ukraine crisis boiled over.

We have always struggled to plan for the many uncertainties the future may bring, but the massive disruptions of the last couple of years made us realise that grappling with uncertainty is not an option.

The British Red Cross’s Strategic Insight and Foresight team has been developing a way to rapidly construct scenarios about the future, helping our teams get a sense of likely people’s short-term and longer-term humanitarian needs, as well as the potential ripple effects caused by a crisis.

Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts of the Ukraine conflict

Change and Transformation

Navigating the Triple Nexus: Leveraging Diplomatic Synergies for Health Systems Strengthening

Navigating the Triple Nexus: Leveraging Diplomatic Synergies for Health Systems Strengthening

The article titled "Navigating the Triple Nexus: Leveraging Diplomatic Synergies for Health Systems Strengthening" addresses the vital interplay between diplomacy and health system support in conflict-ridden areas. Through the lens of Humanitarian Diplomacy (HD) and Global Health Diplomacy (GHD), the piece advocates for a nuanced, integrated approach embodied by the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus. This approach seeks to unify immediate relief with long-term development and peace efforts, using diplomacy as a tool to navigate the complex challenges faced by health systems in such settings, thereby ensuring sustainable health improvements and the safeguarding of human rights.

,

Navigating the Resistance: Cultural Transformation in Humanitarian Organizations

,
Navigating the Resistance: Cultural Transformation in Humanitarian Organizations

Innovation in the humanitarian sector is a challenging journey, often hindered by cultural resistance. However, with a transformation strategy, leadership support, and a culture open to change, these obstacles can be overcome. Strategic foresight, which anticipates future trends and proactively develops solutions, can greatly enhance this process. External pressures, like the COVID-19 pandemic, can also catalyze cultural transformation, prompting organizations to rethink traditional ways and embrace innovation.

,

Livelihood support for migrants is a excellent investment

,
Livelihood support for migrants is a excellent investment

The world is facing a severe economic downturn, but the flow of remittances has been relatively stable and continues to provide support for many families in low and middle-income countries. According to the World Bank, global remittance flows reached $626 billion in 2022, an increase of 5% from the previous year. This growth is smaller than in previous years, but it is significant given the economic outlook. Investing in livelihoods support for migrants in high-income countries could be an effective way of supporting communities globally.

,

Breaking the Short-Termism Trap

,
Breaking the Short-Termism Trap

The humanitarian ecosystem is failing to adapt to global transformations and new types of crises. This failure is rooted in the opportunistic nature of ODA flow governance and the entrenched value chain of formal humanitarian actors. To break free from this short-termism trap, the humanitarian ecosystem must shift its approach and values, prioritizing the needs and voices of those affected by humanitarian crises. Only then can it fulfill its potential to provide effective and lasting assistance.

,

From Afghan Voices to Afghan Choices – humanitarian actors in Afghanistan need to up their game

,
From Afghan Voices to Afghan Choices – humanitarian actors in Afghanistan need to up their game

Afghanistan is one of the countries that received the highest amount of ODI over the past 20 years, yet poverty has lately been on the rise. Aid is heavily politicized and the fight against corruption has shown limited success. Consequently, the aid sector is affected by a fundamental lack of trust: high ranking officials of the Afghan government have repeatedly expressed their distrust of aid actors

,

Why Equity Based Design Thinking is Key to Decolonising Humanitarian Programmes

,
Why Equity Based Design Thinking is Key to Decolonising Humanitarian Programmes

Whilst multilateral reform and changing the current models of humanitarian financing are ultimately what is needed for systemic change, every agency could adjust the way that it develops programmes- and this small change has the potential to transform aid. Designing and delivering aid programs is a core function of most humanitarian organizations and therefore it is in the process that all humanitarian aid sectors needs to revisit to begin their equity-based, decolonial journey.

,

The politics of knowledge and the future of aid

,
The politics of knowledge and the future of aid

Universities and research centers are important, non-traditional, humanitarian actors that actively participate in knowledge production and cadre formation for the sector, with a preponderance of global North institutions over the ones from the South.

There are, at least, three areas of opportunity for Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in the global North to engage productively with the principles and objectives of the Grand Bargain proposed during the World Humanitarian Summit of 2016, so that humanitarian knowledge production can also jump into the “localization” wagon:

,

The aid sector needs a new model

,
The aid sector needs a new model

Aid is at a critical juncture.

The coronavirus pandemic is just the latest in a series of crises that have tested the logic behind our interventions; questioned our management abilities; and interrogated whether our values are truly just and transformative.

There are renewed calls for aid to change. But it seems most of it are tweaks to an inherently broken system, instead of a real pause and reflection to the very nature of our work.

,

Venezuelan migrants in Colombia: Is humanitarian aid enough?

,
Venezuelan migrants in Colombia: Is humanitarian aid enough?

Considering the large numbers of migrants, plus the already existent vulnerable population in Colombia, a solely humanitarian approach clearly falls short. There must be a bridge between humanitarian affairs and development. In that way, the migrants will improve their access to basic services, hence a better life, and at the same time, the host country and community will experience the positive effects coming from migration.

,

Géopolitique de l'Homophobie

,
Géopolitique de l'Homophobie

L’homophobie est entendue comme les discriminations de tous ordres à l’encontre des personnes LGBT (lesbiennes, gays, bisexuelles et transgenres). Si «l’homophobie politique» est déjà connue en tant qu’outil de duplicité en politique intérieure, Michel Maietta explore davantage son pouvoir de manipulation, jusqu’à sa dimension géopolitique. L’auteur nous rappelle à quel point la protection des droits des personnes LGBT revêt une importance stratégique dans la défense plus large des droits de l’homme.

,

Shifting the Power: A Few Hard Truths on Localisation

,
Shifting the Power: A Few Hard Truths on Localisation

Many have said it before: localisation needs to stop being a talking point and start being a reality. But we have been saying this since the advent of capacity building. So do we really mean it? If so, how can we bring about localised change effectively, and swiftly?

Why localisation is no longer an 'if', but firmly, a 'when'.

, , ,

Aid in the Tech Era

, , ,
Aid in the Tech Era

The last century has been characterised by the advancement and spread of technology. The reach and adoption, particularly of information and communication technology (ICT) saw a sharp rise in the 1990s and has grown exponentially since. Leonie LeBorgne and Matthew Williams ask: are Aid Organisations ready to respond to a growing and dangerous digital divide?

,

Caution! Aid re-construction zone

,
Caution! Aid re-construction zone

With problems on the rise ‘at home’, criticism of foreign aid is stronger than ever. At the same time, humanitarian needs are growing, and far outpacing the funding requirements and government commitments needed to address the short- and long-term consequences of crises. What lies in store for aid organisations?

,

L’humanitaire maritime : un incubateur de nouvelles approches

,
L’humanitaire maritime : un incubateur de nouvelles approches

Depuis une décennie, les besoins humanitaires ne cessent d’évoluer, s’intensifiant et se complexifiant. En 2015, selon l’UNHCR, 65.3 millions de personnes étaient déplacées. Parmi celles-ci, 21.3 millions sont des réfugiés au titre de la convention de 1951 et la très grande majorité d’entre eux le sont dans un pays voisin. Seule une minorité de 6% sont accueillis en Europe. Malgré cette faible proportion, la crise migratoire à laquelle est confrontée l’Europe depuis 2014 a contribué à mettre en avant les fragilités du système humanitaire traditionnel.

,

Using the Future to Humanity’s Advantage

,
Using the Future to Humanity’s Advantage

$1 spent in preparedness saves $7 in humanitarian response (1). Humanitarians working in disaster preparedness, early warning, and resilience building have all heard this before. Though it may satisfy public and private donors for reasons of accountability and a no-regrets approach to programming, we need to push past this statistic. What is the true value of pre-empting the future when working in humanitarian response?

The future awaits.