Future of Aid 2040

What kind of aid system do we need by 2040, and how do we build it starting now?

Future of Aid 2040 is an IARAN-led initiative connecting collective humanitarian foresight with practical pathways for organisational transformation.

Phase 1 explored how the aid system could evolve through four scenarios, a crisis typology and analysis of the forces shaping change. Phase 2, Pathways to Transformation (P2T), translated this work into organisational archetypes, transformation pathways and a practical Guide.

Explore the findings, reflect on your organisation’s position and use the tools to shape your next steps.

Follow the research into action

Begin with the assumptions shaping aid, explore four possible futures, consider how organisations can transform, then use the Guide with your team.

Follow the sequence below, or start with the resource most useful to you.

1 · Understand the systemUnpacking the Aid SystemCausal Layered Analysis (CLA) of the narratives and assumptions beneath aid.Explore the report →

2 · Explore possible futuresScenarios & Crisis TypologyFour futures for 2040 and a framework for understanding changing crises.Explore the scenarios →

3 · Consider transformationPathways to TransformationOrganisational archetypes, a shared value chain and pathways for change.Explore the pathways →

4 · Work with your teamTransformation GuideA practical process for turning reflection into a pathway for your organisation.Open the Guide (PDF) ↗

Two completed phases. A foundation for action.

Research, lived experience and collective analysis have shaped a shared outlook for the aid system—and practical ways for organisations to respond.

Phase 1 — Exploration · 2024–2025

Understanding possible futures

Examined the aid system’s underlying narratives and the forces shaping its future, then co-created four scenarios and a typology of crises.

877

contributors through more than 50 consultations

25 drivers of change
Four alternative futures for aid in 2040
A crisis typology and Causal Layered Analysis

Who contributed to Phase 1?

77% from Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, South/South-East Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean
44% from local NGOs or community-based organisations
Approximately 40% with lived experience of crisis

Phase 2 — Pathways · 2025–2026

Designing transformation pathways

Explored how local, intermediary and enabling actors can complement one another, and what organisations need to change to remain effective across different futures.

500+

participants through webinars, workshops and interviews

Five organisational archetypes and a shared value chain
Pathways to Transformation report and Guide
A Sensing Exercise to begin organisational reflection

Who contributed to Phase 2?

65% from Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa
56% from local NGOs, community-based organisations or movements
36% with lived experience of crises
57% female; 41% male; fewer than 2% non-binary or trans

What could this mean for your organisation?

Begin with the Sensing Exercise: a 10–15 minute reflection on seven connected components of your organisation’s value chain. No prior reading is needed.

Get an indicative “fit for 2040” percentage and a personalised profile of your strengths and priorities. Print your mini-report, discuss it with your team and use the Transformation Guide to plan your next steps.

Start the Sensing Exercise

A collective effort, grounded in lived experience

Future of Aid 2040 brings together humanitarian, academic and philanthropic partners, with local leadership and the experience of people affected by crises at the centre of its approach.

Building on IARAN’s 2017 Future of Aid 2030 study, the initiative began revisiting the outlook in 2024 to connect analysis of a changing world with practical organisational transformation.

Steering Committee

The initiative is guided by a Steering Committee [Asociación Salto Ángel, Barzani Charity Foundation, Bioforce, Croix Rouge Française, Fondation de France, Futuribles International, Humanitarian Leadership Academy, Humanitalents, International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC), NORCAP, Organisation for Sustainable Development Africa (OSDA), Partnership Brokers Association, Pastoral Social Colombiana – Caritas, Pujiono Centre, Rädda Barnen, Rural Movement Organisation (RMO), Save the Children Italia, Start Network, The Hague Humanitarian Studies Centre, United Edge, and Welthungerhilfe (WHH)] and an Academic Panel [Sohail Inayatullah, Philippe Ryfman, Alice Obrecht, Karla Paniagua, Nazanin Zadeh-Cummings, Ajoy Datta, Guillermo Gándara, Alimi Salifou, Sheila Castillo, François Bourse, Mahmoud Ramadan, and others] whose contributions ensure methodological rigour and ethical integrity.

Read our Ethical Compliance Policy →

A call to co-creation

A foreword by Puji Pujiono

Puji Pujiono invites civil society to co-lead the re-imagining of the aid system, grounding transformation in local leadership, shared responsibility and the spirit of gotong royong.

He invites viewers to anchor transformation in locally led leadership and shared responsibility, and to use this Outlook as a starting point for collective action.

*Gotong royong: Indonesian ethos of communal mutual aid and collective responsibility.

“...For too long, the aid system has been built on shifting ground by outsiders, leaving those who must live within its walls out of the process. ...it is the first time that civil society from the Global South has been involved in reimagining the very foundations of ‘aid’—not just to observe the changes, but to contribute to the gotong royong* spirit.”

— Puji Pujiono is Senior Adviser at the Pujiono Centre and Member of the Future of Aid 2040 Steering Committee

Looking ahead

Phase 3 — Turn foresight into lasting change

Help equip aid organisations for the futures ahead.

Building on the research and practical tools developed through Phases 1 and 2, the next chapter connects two priorities:

Fit-for-Future Skills: translate foresight into practical priorities for training, recruitment and organisational development.
Transformation in Practice: support organisations in applying the P2T Guide, adapting it to their contexts and sharing what they learn.

Partner support can enable regional workshops, participation by local actors and hands-on support for organisational transformation. The ambition is to turn this experience into skills, tools and learning that benefit the wider aid community.

Join us in strengthening the capabilities and local leadership that will shape the future of aid.

Discuss a Phase 3 partnership

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