Out Now!! “Unpacking the Aid System: laying the groundwork for transformation”

The aid sector stands at a crossroads, facing a period of unprecedented disruption. Dramatic cuts to overseas development aid and humanitarian assistance in 2024–25 have sent shockwaves across the sector, triggering widespread program closures and staff layoffs. It's clear the aid system is in crisis, but this crisis has ignited crucial discussions about what aid means, how it functions, and where it must go next.

For decades, aid has provided vital support to hundreds of millions worldwide, yet persistent critiques label the sector as “broken”, unable to fulfill promises of locally-driven decision-making and community-led responses. But what if the system isn't broken at all? What if it's operating exactly as designed?

“The system is working in the way that it was intended when it was set up in its modern incarnation. It keeps power in the hands of a few and while it addresses the results of vulnerability, it does not invest adequate resources or political capital to address the causes that create it.”

Beneath the surface: a deep dive into aid

IARAN and the Centre for Humanitarian Leadership (CHL) proudly present Unpacking the Aid System: laying the groundwork for transformation, a preliminary report designed to spark deeper conversations and inspire real transformation. Through the lens of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), this report reveals hidden systemic drivers, prevailing worldviews, and deeply held narratives sustaining the current status quo, offering an essential diagnosis to shape a new Future of Aid.

This report is the first in a series from the Future of Aid 2040 initiative. Stay tuned for our upcoming foresight report in September 2025, where we'll share detailed scenarios mapping out potential pathways for transforming the aid system.

The journey

In 2016, IARAN’s Future of Aid: INGO in 2030 was a successful and widely adopted report for the strategic planning of humanitarian actors. Yet, the shifting tides of the global landscape demand fresh insights that capture the seismic changes ahead. In response to this call, our team is joining efforts with Centre for Humanitarian Leadership (CHL) to revisit and expand the humanitarian outlook for 2040, emphasising the need for actionable leadership and strategic planning pathways to transformation.

The Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation aims to explore and identify narrative scenarios reflecting the future developments that could impact the humanitarian ecosystem by 2040.  Through a highly participatory and consultive process, it also seeks to create a compelling vision of how the humanitarian system can thrive amid future crises, emphasising inclusivity and the voice of local leadership. Our ultimate goal goes beyond foresight analysis: we aim to deliver transformative pathways for aid organizations, offering leadership and change strategies that empower them to evolve into resilient, future-ready entities capable of thriving in an ever-changing world.

Calendar

Who is involved?

Aside from IARAN and CHL who will take the role of Executive Committee that will lead and implement the study, this project is backed by a dedicated Steering Committee and an Academic Panel, comprising humanitarian thought leaders and academic experts from across the world:

The Steering Committee is a core advisory group that includes the Asociación Salto Ángel, Croix Rouge Française, Fondation de France, Futuribles International, International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC), NORCAP, Organisation for Sustainable Development Africa (OSDA), Pastoral Social Colombiana – Caritas, Pujiono Centre, Rädda Barnen, Rural Movement Organisation (RMO), Save the Children Italia, Start Network, The Hague Humanitarian Studies Centre, United Edge, and Welthungerhilfe (WHH).

The Academic Panel is a dynamic collective of foresight innovators and humanitarian research leaders. Each member contributes a distinct lens, blending diverse foresight methodologies with real-world humanitarian insights to challenge conventional thinking and inspire transformative strategies. Members of the Academic Panel have also supported the design of the projects ethical policy. The Future of Aid 2040 initiative is guided by principles of transparency and accountability, ensuring all collaborations align with the highest ethical standards. For more information, please see our Ethical Compliance Policy. Academic Panel is comprised of: Alice Obrecht , Jennifer Doherty, Karla Paniagua, Alimi Salifou, Shiela R. Castillo, Guillermo Gándara, Francois Bourse, Mahmoud Ramadan, Sohail Inayatullah, Oscar Enrique Hernández, Nazanin Zadeh-Cummings, Ajoy Datta, and Philippe Ryfman.

What has been done so far?

Since November 2024, the Future of Aid 2040 project has conducted over 50 webinars and surveys aimed at building a collective understanding of the narratives shaping humanitarian aid and where it is going. Over 800 people have participated in the project.

The community was brought together during sessions that explored the key drivers of change in both the global environment and the humanitarian ecosystem, as well as the types of crises the sector should be preparing for. This extensive consultation process culminated in the co-design of four future scenarios. Summary presentations used in each webinar are available below, with the full report set to be published in September 2025.

1. Futures Thinking: Exploring the landscape of humanitarianism over the next 15 years, including key drivers and worldviews.

Watch recording here (Streaming only available in English)

Download presentation here (English, French, Spanish)

2. Types of Crises: Analyzing potential vulnerabilities and preparedness strategies for future crises.

Watch recording here (Streaming only available in English)

Download presentation here (English, French, Spanish)

3. Scenarios for 2040: Developing possible futures and strategic responses for a resilient humanitarian sector.

Watch recording here (Streaming only available in English)

Download presentation here (English, French, Spanish)

How can I get involved?

We invite all community-based, local leaders and humanitarian actors to bring your voices! In the September/October of 2025 we will be opening consultations for Phase 2 of the Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transoformation where we work together to explore what these possible futures mean for us and how we can build a collective vision of effective humanitarian action. You can participate through a series of surveys or structured online seminars we will be hosting to identify - watch this space and follow along to find out more!

If you are a network/movement/organization and you are interested in joining the Future of Aid 2040 project, please reach out to us at futureofaid@iaran.org.

Reach out to us at futureofaid@iaran.org if you have any questions or would like more information.

Thank you for joining us in crafting a resilient future for humanitarian aid.