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Phase 1 — Exploration (2024–2025)
Map 25 drivers and critical uncertainties; co-create 4 futures and a typology of crises with 877 contributors.
What kind of aid system do we need by 2040, and how do we build it starting now?
A collective foresight initiative to imagine and shape the #futureofaid together.
Why this matters
International aid is increasingly contested, under-funded, and politicised. At the same time, solidarity, innovation, and local leadership continue to thrive on the ground. Future of Aid 2040 brings these realities together to co-create a shared outlook for the aid system to 2040 and help organisations act now.
A collaborative, multi-year project, the Future of Aid 2040 was designed to respond to three core aims:
The Future of Aid 2040 initiative was designed to respond to three core aims:
To analyse potential changes in the global context and aid system by 2040
To identify concrete pathways for organisational transformation
To develop tools and guidelines to support organisations in kick starting a transformative journey
Project snapshot
In 2017, IARAN’s Future of Aid: INGO in 2030 report became a widely used reference for strategic planning across the aid sector. In 2024, recognising the scale geopolitical changes and ongoing shifts in the aid sector there was a recognition that the analysis needed to be updated and revised. In response, IARAN has joined forces with a broad network of partners to revisit and expand the outlook to 2040, placing greater emphasis on practical transformation and leadership for systemic change.
Built through an inclusive foresight process, the project connected research, lived experience, and strategic analysis to explore how the aid system might evolve by 2040. It identified the capacities and transformations required for aid actors to remain effective, legitimate, and locally anchored in a rapidly changing world.
Who is involved?
Future of Aid 2040 is supported by an extraordinary coalition of humanitarian, academic, and philanthropic partners.
The initiative is guided by a Steering Committee [Asociación Salto Ángel, Barzani Charity Foundation, Bioforce, Croix Rouge Française, Fondation de France, Futuribles International, Humanitarian Leadership Academy, Humanitalents, International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC), NORCAP, Organisation for Sustainable Development Africa (OSDA), Partnership Brokers Association, Pastoral Social Colombiana – Caritas, Pujiono Centre, Rädda Barnen, Rural Movement Organisation (RMO), Save the Children Italia, Start Network, The Hague Humanitarian Studies Centre, United Edge, and Welthungerhilfe (WHH)] and an Academic Panel [Sohail Inayatullah, Philippe Ryfman, Alice Obrecht, Karla Paniagua, Nazanin Zadeh-Cummings, Ajoy Datta, Guillermo Gándara, Alimi Salifou, Sheila Castillo, François Bourse, Mahmoud Ramadan, and others] whose contributions ensure methodological rigour and ethical integrity.
Together, these partners make Future of Aid 2040 a truly global effort to re-imagine and transform the aid system for the decades ahead. Read our Ethical Compliance Policy →
The Future of Aid 2040 a process
Phase 1 integrated the perspectives of nearly 900 people in a shared visioning exercise to dissect the aid system in 2025 and craft an outlook of the sector to 2040.
Future of Aid Phase 1 consulations:
50+
Consultations
877
Contributors
77%
From SSA, MENA, S/SEA, LAC
44%
Local NGOs / CBOs
~40%
With lived experience of crisis
Get grounded in where we are today.
The first output of the Future of Aid 2040 consultations was a Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) of the Aid sector in 2025. A CLA is designed to reveal the deeper narratives, worldviews, and myths that underpin a system. This CLA report, Unpacking the Aid System: Laying the Groundwork for Transformation, unpacks the the structures, principles and incentives that characterise the aid sector and decomposed into its different component parts. The report is based on input from the Future of Aid 2040 community and focuses on the stories shared by those with lived experience of crises to hear in their own words how they see aid in the present day.
The CLA of the aid sector formed the foundation of the study and grounded the project with the voices of the people who matter most – those with lived experience of crises.
Building from this base, the community began looking towards the future and co-created the Future of Aid 2040 scenarios. Explore the Scenarios & Crisis Typology →
A call to co-creation, foreword by Puji Pujiono
Puji Pujiono frames Future of Aid 2040 as a milestone for civil society across Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Pacific, co-leading the re-imagining of the aid system and moving from observation to co-creation in the spirit of gotong royong*.
He invites viewers to anchor transformation in locally led leadership and shared responsibility, and to use this Outlook as a starting point for collective action.
*Gotong royong: Indonesian ethos of communal mutual aid and collective responsibility.
“...For too long, the aid system has been built on shifting ground by outsiders, leaving those who must live within its walls out of the process. ...it is the first time that civil society from the Global South has been involved in reimagining the very foundations of ‘aid’—not just to observe the changes, but to contribute to the gotong royong* spirit.”
Phase 2 brought together over 500 people through webinars, workshops and interviews. The community was made up of a similarly diverse group of participants as Phase 1.
65%
From SSA, LAC, Asia & MENA
57% / 41%
Female / Male
<2% non-binary / trans
<2% non-binary / trans
36%
With lived experience of crises
56%
Local NGOs / CBOs / movements
Through structured webinars and workshops, participants were asked to reflect on the following questions:
What kinds of organisational transformations are required for aid actors to add value in a changing world?
How can planning from a place of complementarity increase the effectiveness of aid actors in serving communities?
What does this look like in practice?
From foresight to transformation
The Future of Aid 2040 unfolds in three complementary phases: mapping the forces shaping the next decades, testing how organisations can adapt, and strengthening collective capacities for long-term transformation. Phase 1 and Phase 2 are completed but the journey of Phase 3 is just beginning.
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Phase 2 — Pathways (2025–2026)
Work with organisations to stress-test strategies and co-design transformation pathways, centred on local leadership through regional labs.
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Phase 3 — Collective Action (2026+)
Build momentum through foresight cohorts and peer-learning to sustain locally-led change across the aid ecosystem.
The sector faces mounting pressures: from climate shocks and conflict to shrinking resources. Future of Aid 2040 moves beyond analysis toward practical transformation: using scenarios and a crisis typology to stress-test value propositions and current strategies and co-design future-fit pathways for a locally led aid sector. Join us on this journey!
Phase 2 is now live
Phase 2 has produced three complementary resources — one to start with, one to read, and one to do:
Start with the Sensing Exercise (new)
A 15-minute organisational stock-taking. A first honest look at where your organisation stands today, before you commit to deeper work. Use it solo, or open it up to your leadership team.
Start the Sensing Exercise → · 15 minutes · No login required
Read the Report
Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation — From Analysis to Action. Five organisational archetypes and a Fit-for-the-Future aid value chain, with concrete recommendations for local, intermediary and enabling actors.
Use the Guide
Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation — P2T Guide. A four-stage facilitated companion: assess readiness, map your organisation's tree, stress-test it against the four 2040 scenarios, and backcast a concrete pathway.