International indices specialised in measuring corruption levels denote a global increase in this phenomenon. The latest edition of the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) is very clear about this: in 2022 more than two-thirds of the jurisdictions evaluated scored below 50 (on a scale from 0 (very corrupt) to 100 (very clean)). Furthermore, 155 countries out of the 180 analysed by the CPI have made no significant progress or have even worsened since 2012. Similarly, the Anti-Corruption Capacity Index 2023 (ICCC) reported that corruption levels increased in 10 of the 15 Latin American countries assessed last year.
Corruption, defined by Transparency International as the “abuse of entrusted power for private gain", is a global phenomenon that costs around USD 1 trillion a year and takes multiple forms such as bribery, extortion, tax evasion, and money laundering, to name a few. Within the current permacrisis landscape: the socio-economic ravages of the pandemic, rising trends of violence and democratic backsliding globally, have created a vulnerable environment for anti-corruption efforts, while new technological applications are emerging that are both sources of great transformative solutions but also potential silver bullets that could hold wild cards.
Corruption is also a critical concern within the humanitarian sector. The detrimental impact of corruption extends to its potential to erode humanitarian assistance precisely when individuals are most vulnerable. Besides, the perceived risk of corruption in various jurisdictions within the global south often dissuades international donors and investors from transferring resources, thereby hindering crucial support efforts.
Although it is true that anti-corruption is now more on the public agenda and we have dedicated specialists and tools to prevent it, there are also signs to the contrary. New forms of corruption and fraud are emerging and have received little attention. Given the uncertain outlook we face, it is not difficult to wonder whether we are heading towards a collapse scenario, or whether there is still hope for an “end to corruption.”
A brief analysis of trends and signs of change may shed some light on this. In foresight, we call trends to sustained patterns over time that are widely recognised, while signals of change are small pieces of information that denote a localised event of a surprising, unusual or unnoticed nature. The combination of the two allows us to anticipate not only the most likely futures but also the alternative futures that emerge from the disruption of the projected future.
Socio-political trends and signals that are impacting the future of corruption.
1. Deteriorating global peace
According to the International Peace Index 2023, global peace levels have deteriorated for the 13th time in the last 15 years. In the latest measurement, of the 163 countries assessed, 95 recorded declines and only 66 recorded gains between 2008 and 2023.
Corruption can be both a catalyst and a result of a less peaceful world. Societies with high levels of corruption often indicate an unequal allocation of public resources and with it an increase in social tensions that lead to distrust of institutions and social conflict.
2. Growing deterioration of democracies
The levels of democratic health enjoyed by the average global citizen in 2022 are comparable to those of 1986, according to the V-Dem Institut's Democracy Report 2023. Today there are more closed autocracies (those with high restrictions on civil and political rights) than liberal democracies. In fact, 7 out of 10 people in the world live in some form of autocracy (5.7 billion people). The deterioration of democracies is relevant because often the transition to an autocratic system involves the elimination of checks and balances, as well as mechanisms that limit the abuse of power and corrupted behaviours.
3. Transition to a multipolar world
The transition from a unipolar world dominated by the US to a multipolar one could involve playing with different regulatory architectures that result in multiple standards of integrity, transparency and data protection. This may generate competition in the long term for regulations such as the FCPA or the UK Bribery Act and those promoted by China and emerging countries such as the BRIC bloc. Countries and cultures sometimes have different values, worldviews, or attitudes regarding what is considered wrong or bad and how a possible act of corruption is penalised.
4. Increasing cybersecurity challenges
With the increasing digitalization in our daily lives, societies and states face new types of corruption threats that are cyber in nature. We spend a lot of time on our phones and the internet and not even countries are not safe from the threats of the virtual world. Corruption is a dangerous phenomenon in the virtual reality as well. Nowadays, our information is easily manipulated and exposed to cyber criminals who know about its vulnerability and can use various tactics to obtain privileged information, giving them access to private resources and even power.
5. Declining standards of integrity and ethical behaviour
Standards of corporate integrity and ethical behaviour have declined in recent years according to various research. As of 2018 a study reported that more than half of US workers perceived a deterioration in corporate integrity in the United States. In addition, the Global Integrity Report 2022 reported that 55% of board members felt that integrity standards had stayed the same or worsened in the last 18 months prior to the survey. The decline in integrity standards is not fortuitous - it often involves changing societal values and attitudes that shift the boundaries between what can be considered right and wrong.
6. Challenges arising from digital and technological transformation
Linked with the previous trend, with the rise of algorithms and technological applications such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), cryptocurrencies, or blockchain it is true that there are potential solutions that point towards a great transformation and better prospects for the fight against corruption, however, technological advancement could be also a wild card that should be taken with caution. In foresight, a wild card implies an event with a low probability, but with a high impact when it materialises. A technology with unintended consequences, or the long-term effects of an event that was not fully known in nature during the present time.
In this sense, some experts have warned of the possibility that with the rise, and probably sacralisation, of intelligent algorithms, a corrupt AI is a plausible scenario under the current conditions. Can we imagine that at some point an AI may come to make key decisions in either the public or private sector? What happens if it is biased or corrupted? The risks of this happening would imply not only discrimination and segregation of certain vulnerable social sectors but also a state of "moral blindness", where corruption becomes such a trivial and banal phenomenon in everyday life that it is even difficult to see or perceive.
7. Growing global interest in the anti-corruption crusade
It is not all gloom and doom, there are also trends and signs of change that point to a brighter future. Since the publication of the United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC) in 2003 and its subsequent entry into force in 2005, we have entered a new era in which anti-corruption has risen on the global agenda and more governments have stepped up their anti-corruption efforts.
Today, while the scourge of corruption appears to be worsening, there is also a renewed international focus on fighting it. Development agencies such as USAID and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) have made anti-corruption a strategic issue for international cooperation and are funding local efforts to curb the phenomenon. The issue is also on the agenda of high-level meetings such as the G7 and G20.
Risks and opportunities around the future of (anti)corruption
In the following section, as future news headlines, we present some possible developments in (anti)corruption that can be anticipated and could become reality in the coming years. In foresight and future design, we often use “future headlines” that help to develop stories that, while fictional, are based on evidence of signs and trends in the present. These stories are written in the form of a provocative narrative in order to vividly visualise and anticipate such realities and provoke action.
Supreme Court orders to shut down Rosmerta, the government's AI specialising in the delivery of social programmes and public resources to vulnerable groups
After an arduous audit of the algorithm behind Rosmerta, which until now was the federal government's star solution for selecting and providing social programmes to vulnerable sectors, the Supreme Audit Office determined that there were clear biases in the AI's selection criteria and there were indeed breaches in its cybersecurity system that allowed the personal data of people who applied for support to be filtered through this algorithm. The Supreme Court took up the case last year following a citizen’s complaint and earlier this year the Court ordered the Welfare Ministry to temporarily suspend Rosmerta, until its algorithm was audited by external consultants. Yesterday, the Supreme Court upheld its previous action and the AI will have to stop functioning until it complies with a series of corrective measures to ensure the transparency of its selection criteria and the reliability of its cybersecurity controls. For the time being, welfare programs will be delivered manually as in the past administration.
Fabricated corruption: Hastings case was induced via deepfake
In an unexpected development to the Hastings case, the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office yesterday received compelling evidence revealing the use of deepfake technology behind the corruption scandal that has rocked Senator Rachel Hastings since last year. Hastings, who until now has been investigated for allegedly engaging in the embezzlement of $5 million in federal public funds, "facts" documented in dozens of documents, photos, emails and videos that directly demonstrated her involvement in the criminal activity, has had her defence unmask the corrosive technology behind the setup.
Hastings' defence lawyer Sarah Mitchell identified a discrepancy in the documentary evidence against the senator and hired a team of digital forensics specialists who found the existence of a deepfake behind the false evidence presented by the prosecution. According to the team of specialists. The deepfake is an application that comes from Russian military bases that use this technology to generate disinformation on a large scale. In this sense, the videos, audios and documents that showed Hastings receiving and manipulating cash, points to being a fictitious set-up with fraudulent intentions, as the senator defended herself from the beginning.
Big-Tech Coalition unveils advanced data analytics tools at G20 to fight corruption
At a time when democracies are at a breaking point due to misinformation, growing violence and corruption, yesterday, Big Tech, comprising tech giants such as Google, Microsoft, Alphabet, OpenAI, Meta, Amazon, HUAWEI and Alibaba, presented its catalogue of tools to fight corruption in partnership with governments and international organisations. These innovative solutions leverage the latest advances in blockchain to track and have transparency over the flow of financial assets (including unregulated digital currencies), harness the power of AI to expose wrongdoing, and feature decentralised technologies to create a global whistleblower alert system with effective protection measures for world citizens. Beta versions of these applications have already been implemented in volunteer countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Argentina and Mali. It is hoped that with more countries joining this system, a more effective anti-corruption global governance system will soon be in place.
References
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