Political instability will be defined in broad terms, encompassing the likelihood of sustained civil disobedience or protests resulting in a weakening of a government’s legitimacy, the potential loss of trust in governance structures or processes, and the propensity for irregular regime change (e.g. assassinations or coups).
By 2030, the countries currently facing political crises will mostly be the same as in the 2010-2015 period
By 2030, the impact of demographic growth and climate change will compound political instability resulting in a concentration of fragility in areas where multiple vulnerabilities intersect.
By 2030, western countries could face significant political tensions resulting in humanitarian crises